Eurovision 2010. First Semifinal Preview

This is my very first entry in English on my blog and it is dedicated to one of my latest interests, the Eurovision Song Contest. I have explained in several of my previous posts (though in Romanian) the reasons for which I like so much the ESC. This entry is not about it J

In fact, I have listened quite a few times this year's entries and had thoughts about and attitudes towards all of them. Here is the result - the first part of the presentation of this year's songs, first semifinal's entries. But before I go on deconstructing the songs, I would like to make some general remarks:

• I am not a professional music critic, nor do I play guitar. I also sing dreadfully. But I do have a blog. And my father is a professional musician. And I grew up understanding and discussing music.
  
• I did Eurovision previews since 2005, but never published them on-line. However, I think this year's contest is one of the most difficult to predict, as there are no clear favorites (last year I have predicted Rybak to win, it was an easy job)
  
• I do think this year's entries are not as good as last year's ones. I also consider second semifinal to be stronger (if I may apply this label to music). Altogether, these are good circumstances for Olia Tira and Sun Stroke Projekt, as their entry was not acclaimed by Moldovans the way ESC songs by Zdob si Zdub or Nelly Ciobanu had been.
  
• There are 17 songs in the first Semifinal. I have tried to identify the specific advantages, disadvantages and risks that every contestant might face. I have also shown odds given by bookmakers. Finally, I have given a forecast on whether the song will make it up to the final or not. Last year I had a prediction accuracy of at least 80% for both semifinals, but I do not expect to have the same precision this year.
  
• It will take you some time to see the videos and read my comments, so I would like to thank you in advance for the effort. It would be nice if you could leave some comments (doesn't matter the language), on any song you like or dislike. If I'll find your comments useful to improve the preview, I will use them without hesitation. It's my blog, after all. And yes, all you'll read below are my opinions, and should not be treated in any other way than as my opinions. Nor should I be claimed responsible for any betting decision that you might take on the basis of my assessment.

Enjoy!

MOLDOVA - SunStroke Project şi Olia Tira "Run away"

Advantages:

• Few up tempo songs this year. This is very unique in its genre.
• Great intro and catchy saxophone part
• 12 points from Romania, more than 6 points from both Spain and Portugal
• Will look great in replays

Disadvantages:

• Poor live performance from Olia Tira
• No harmony in the duet, his and her voices do not fit well together

Risk:

• Starting first. It will depend a bit on the opening ceremony.

Betting Odds:

• To qualify for the final: 1.63
• To win the contest: 51-101

Forecast:

• To qualify for the final
  

RUSSIA - Piotr Nalici „Lost and Forgotten”

Advantages:

• Nalitch's authority among Russian speaking Internet users in many post-Soviet countries
• Good voice and very personal live interpretation
• Russia has not missed a single final since the semifinal-final format was introduced.

Disadvantages:

• Performs second, after an up-tempo song. Could be shadowed by Moldovan's performance
• Not necessarily the most romantic amongst the lyrical songs this year

Risk:

• Specific humor in the song

Betting Odds:

• To qualify for the final: 1.53
• To win the contest: 51-201

Forecast:

• To qualify for the final

ESTONIA - Malcolm Lincoln & Manpower 4 „Siren”

Advantages:

• The most original entry this year. In my opinion, if there is something called "Eurovision format", this piece is definitely out of it, even more than Lordy's song was.
• Will definitely appeal to emos

Disadvantages:

• Scary song, repulsive to persons not used to this genre
• Estonia cannot hope for much neighborhood help, except from Finland

Risk:

• Live performance. I find difficult to imagine how it sounds live

Betting Odds:

• To qualify for the final: 1.51
• To win the contest: 81-201

Forecast:

• Not to qualify for the final

SLOVAKIA - Kristína Peláková „Horehronie”

Advantages:

• The first song with folk accents. Will appeal both to Central European and to Balkan voters
• Very rhythmic, dynamic tune
• Good vocal, though not masterly, interpretation
• Beautiful singer

Disadvantages:

• Slovakia is a relative newcomer to Eurovision. Cannot count on "neighborhood voting", as Czech Republic does not participate.

Risk:

• Misinterpretation of the "Hallelujah" part

Betting Odds:

• To qualify for the final: 1.21
• To win the contest: 26-41

Forecast:

• To qualify for the final
  

FINLAND - Kuunkuiskaajat „Työlki ellää”

Advantages:

• Nice and happy song.
• Will appeal to those that like Gipsy rhythms
• Follows Slovakia and audience will be connected to folk party songs
• Beautiful Nordic singers

Disadvantages:

• What does the girl with the violin do in the back?

Risk:

• Vocal interpretation in between up tempo choruses is not convincing

Betting Odds:

• To qualify for the final: 1.85
• To win the contest: 67-257

Forecast:

• To qualify for the final
  

LATVIA - Aisha „What For?”

Advantages:

• Good live interpretation, though not a challenging tune

Disadvantages:

• Too slow, too sweet
• Not an original song. Definitely reminds me of a well-known melody, though I'm still struggling to find which one. I have it on the top of my tongue, will you help me to find out which is it?
• Ending, with the Whitney Houston - style high notes, is a bit too much

Risk:

• "Mister God"? Shouldn't be surprised if Belarus comes in next year with "Tovarisch God".

Betting Odds:

• To qualify for the final: 2.22
• To win the contest: 101-201

Forecast:

• Not to qualify for the final
  

SERBIA - Milan Stanković „Ovo je Balkan”

Advantages:

• Goran Bregovic's hand
• Very much oriented towards Balkan voters, should get points from almost everywhere in the region
• Funkiest folk up-tempo song in the semifinal
• Spanish speaking audience will enjoy hearing "puta" so many times

Disadvantages:

• Melodically not so fine as Slovakia's entry

Risk:

• Singer's appearance

Betting Odds:

• To qualify for the final: 1.29
• To win the contest: 41-81

Forecast:

• To qualify for the final
  

BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA - Vukašin Brajić „Thunder and Lightning”

Advantages:

• Bosnia has never missed an Eurovision final

Disadvantages:

• Loud, and not so entertaining as the previous entry
• The least competitive Bosnian entry in recent history
• Enters the competition after Serbia

Risk:

• To lose Balkan voters because of such a cosmopolite, non folk song

Betting Odds:

• To qualify for the final: 1.69
• To win the contest: 81-323

Forecast:

• Not to qualify for the final
  

POLAND - Marcin Mroziński „Legenda”

Advantages:

• Easy to remember chorus
• Good voice of the singer, well combined with female back vocal
• Poland could benefit from the wave of international attention it had been given this year

Disadvantages:

• The song seems to be composed of several pieces, and the passing is not always smooth
• Poland does not have "Eurovision friends"

Risk:

• Difficult to perform live

Betting Odds:

• To qualify for the final: 2.9
• To win the contest: 101-301

Forecast:

• Not to qualify for the final
  

BELGIUM - Tom Dice „Me and My Guitar”

Advantages:

• Excellent vocal interpretation
• Will appeal to "conservative Eurovisionists"
• Clear and explicit lyrics
• His eyes

Disadvantages:

• Weird squats and grimaces
• No evolution in the song
• Belgium is quite isolated in Eurovision voting
• Followed by a strong ballad from Malta

Risk:

• Not to fit in what people expect from Eurovision, and not to exceed expectations neither

Betting Odds:

• To qualify for the final: 1.17
• To win the contest: 26-67

Forecast:

• Not to qualify for the final
  

MALTA - Thea Garrett „My Dream”

Advantages:

• Strong ballad and excellent interpretation
• Malta's reputation of a country specialized on strong ballads, will retain the same voters as in previous years

Disadvantages:

• Not a sexy singer

Risk:

• Many ballads this year

Betting Odds:

• To qualify for the final: 2.14
• To win the contest: 67-276

Forecast:

• To qualify for the final
  

ALBANIA - Juliana Pasha „It's All About You”

Advantages:

• Follows a long queue of ballads, it will be immediately noticed by its public
• Excellent start
• Makes you move

Disadvantages:

• Repetitive from the minute 1:30, no evolution in the song
• Followed by Greece

Risk:

• Will much depend on the stage show

Betting Odds:

• To qualify for the final: 1.12
• To win the contest: 41-151

Forecast:

• To qualify for the final
  

GREECE - Giorgos Alkeos and Friends „OPA”

Advantages:

• Greece is a giant of Eurovision
• A Ruslana style start, could appeal to many fans of folk music
• Greek language sounds great in the song
• Follows Albania, which will prepare the audience for an up-tempo song
• Great opportunity for a fire-dance

Disadvantages:

• Stage movements of the singer. Compared Sakis Rouvas, Giorgos Alkaios seems to be made of wood

Risk:

• No too many risks in the semi-final

Betting Odds:

• To qualify for the final: 1.07
• To win the contest: 17-26

Forecast:

• To qualify for the final
  

PORTUGAL - Filipa Azevedo „Há dias assim”

Advantages:

• Could appeal to those voters that like songs in genuine languages
• She really suffers on the stage (though it is not clear for what), could provoke pity

Disadvantages:

• Comes in after Greece. Audience will find it difficult to disconnect from Giorgos Alkaios' energy
• There was Malta in the contest, that would have impressed more by now
• She shouts

Risk:

• To lose her voice shouting. Just kiddin'.

Betting Odds:

• To qualify for the final: 2.06
• To win the contest: 81-380

Forecast:

• Not to qualify for the final

MACEDONIA - Gjoko Taneski „Jas ja imam silata”

Advantages:

• Though not folk, very traditional music for the Balkans
• Strong chorus, good back vocal

Disadvantages:

• It is not clear what is he singing about, though it seems to be important
• He shouts better than he sings at the beginning of the song

Risk:

• The rap part could be misinterpreted by some voters

Betting Odds:

• To qualify for the final: 2.71
• To win the contest: 101-523

Forecast:

• Not to qualify for the final

BELARUS - 3+2 „Butterflies”

Advantages:

• Very calm, positive and sunny song. Chorus is definitely similar to Alsu's "Vsegda i navsegda", though is much less emotionally touching (at least for me).
• The song is just perfectly suited to be combined with new technologies. Screen will display giant butterflies. This should impress.

Disadvantages:

• Starting is not convincing

Risk:

• Too much pathos for some viewers

Betting Odds:

• To qualify for the final: 1.4
• To win the contest: 26-90

Forecast:

• To qualify for the final

ICELAND - Hera Björk „Je ne sais quoi”

Advantages:

• Follows Belarus, and is superior in terms of vocal performance
• I expect her to get many votes from the jury, as she is an outstanding vocalist (she really sings, not shouts as some other singers in this semifinal do)

Disadvantages:

• Is a little bit too loud for a ballad

Risk:

• Is the singer to end the show, most of the audience has preferences by that time.

Betting Odds:

• To qualify for the final: 1.48
• To win the contest: 34-200

Forecast:

• To qualify for the final